# Autonomous Passive Sourcing for Freight Carriers

*/Opportunities/Autonomous_Passive_Sourcing_for_Freight_Carriers*

## Opportunity Market Sizing

_Illustrative — target and order-of-magnitude estimate figures, not an achieved track record (this Thing is concept-stage)._

**S A M**: ~$400M-600M segment comprising small-to-medium tech-enabled fleets heavily dependent on spot market freight
**S O M**: ~$15M-30M realistic 3-year capture focusing on dry van and reefer carriers in major domestic lanes
**T A M**: ~300k US freight carriers × ~$5k/yr autonomous sourcing software spend ≈ ~$1.5B
**Growth Rate**: ~12-18%/yr, driven by tightening carrier margins and the need to minimize deadhead miles in volatile spot markets
**Paid Comparable Spend**: ~$40k-60k/yr per human dispatcher plus ~$1k-3k/yr on fragmented premium load board subscriptions

## Opportunity Incumbents

- [DAT One Load Board](/Products/DAT_One_Load_Board) — Tool
- [Truckstop Capacity](/Products/Truckstop_Capacity) — Tool
- [CH Robinson Navisphere](/Products/CH_Robinson_Navisphere) — Tool
- [Uber Freight](/Products/Uber_Freight) — Service
- [Third Party Dispatchers](/Products/Third_Party_Dispatchers) — Service
- [Excel Carrier Networks](/Products/Excel_Carrier_Networks) — Spreadsheet
- [Internal Email Blasts](/Products/Internal_Email_Blasts) — DIY

## Opportunity Win Conditions

**Kill Thresholds**:
- Zero-touch loads secured stays below 1 per week per carrier after 30 days
- Broker API block rate exceeds 15 percent of all automated bids
- Margin-negative load booking rate exceeds 2 percent
- Day 60 retention falls below 40 percent for onboarded fleets
**Leading Metrics**:
- Zero-touch loads secured per week per carrier
- Autonomous bid-to-win conversion rate
- Dispatcher daily active time on incumbent load boards
- Deadhead mile percentage per autonomous truck
- Broker automated rejection or block rate
**What Proves Right**: Carriers connect their load board credentials and the system autonomously bids on and secures at least 3 profitable loads per week without human intervention. Small fleets maintain a $400 monthly subscription after a 30-day trial due to a measurable 15 percent reduction in deadhead miles. Dispatchers shift from manual searching to exception management, dropping their active screen time on incumbent load boards by 80 percent.
**What Proves Wrong**: Brokers flag and ban automated bidding agents, forcing the system back to a manual click-to-confirm workflow that dispatchers abandon. The software calculates poor lane profitability or ignores hours-of-service limits, resulting in active margin loss for the carrier. Customer acquisition stalls because target small fleets lack the premium API credentials required by incumbent load boards to enable the autonomous integration.

## Neighborhood

### Incumbent in

- [Third-Party Dispatchers](/Products/Third-Party_Dispatchers) — incumbent in · Products
- [C.H. Robinson Navisphere](/Products/C.H._Robinson_Navisphere) — incumbent in · Products
- [Excel Carrier Networks](/Products/Excel_Carrier_Networks) — incumbent in · Products
- [Truckstop Capacity](/Products/Truckstop_Capacity) — incumbent in · Products
- [Uber Freight](/Products/Uber_Freight) — incumbent in · Products
- [Internal Email Blasts](/Products/Internal_Email_Blasts) — incumbent in · Products
- [DAT One Load Board](/Products/DAT_One_Load_Board) — incumbent in · Products