# Algorithmic Alloy Correction for Foundries

*/Opportunities/Algorithmic_Alloy_Correction_for_Foundries*

## Opportunity Market Sizing

_Illustrative — target and order-of-magnitude estimate figures, not an achieved track record (this Thing is concept-stage)._

**S A M**: ~$400-600M US and European mid-market precision casting operations
**S O M**: ~$15-30M
**T A M**: ~40k global foundries and secondary metal producers × ~$30k/yr software allocation ≈ ~$1.2B
**Growth Rate**: ~8-12%/yr, driven by volatile raw material costs and the accelerating retirement of experienced foundry metallurgists
**Paid Comparable Spend**: ~$40k-80k/yr per facility in senior metallurgist labor for manual charge calculation and wasted over-spec ferroalloy additions

## Opportunity Incumbents

- [Excel Solver Models](/Products/Excel_Solver_Models) — Spreadsheet
- [Odyssey ERP](/Products/Odyssey_ERP) — Tool
- [Synchro ERP](/Products/Synchro_ERP) — Tool
- [Manual Mass Balancing](/Products/Manual_Mass_Balancing) — DIY
- [Metallurgical Consultants](/Products/Metallurgical_Consultants) — Service
- [Melt-Rite Software](/Products/Melt-Rite_Software) — Tool

## Opportunity Win Conditions

**Kill Thresholds**:
- Manual override rate > 40% after 30 days
- Less than $3,000 in demonstrated monthly ferroalloy savings per facility
- OES data ingestion failure rate > 15%
- D30 account retention < 50% for pilot facilities
**Leading Metrics**:
- Time-to-first-charge-calculation
- Optical emission spectrometer data ingestion success rate
- Daily active melt deck operators per facility
- Percentage of alloy corrections accepted without manual override
- Ferroalloy material savings per melt cycle
**What Proves Right**: Metallurgists at precision casting operations replace manual Excel solvers with the platform for daily charge calculations. Foundries pay $2,500 per month per facility because the software consistently reduces over-spec ferroalloy additions. Day-30 retention remains above 80% as operators integrate the tool directly into their melt deck workflow.
**What Proves Wrong**: Foundries refuse to trust the algorithmic charge calculations over their experienced metallurgists. The software fails to parse raw data from existing optical emission spectrometers, forcing manual data entry that operators abandon within the first week. Cost savings from reduced ferroalloy usage fail to exceed the software subscription price.

## Neighborhood

### Incumbent in

- [SYNCHRO ERP](/Products/SYNCHRO_ERP) — incumbent in · Products
- [Excel Solver Models](/Products/Excel_Solver_Models) — incumbent in · Products
- [Manual Mass Balancing](/Products/Manual_Mass_Balancing) — incumbent in · Products
- [Melt-Rite Software](/Products/Melt-Rite_Software) — incumbent in · Products
- [Metallurgical Consultants](/Products/Metallurgical_Consultants) — incumbent in · Products
- [Odyssey ERP](/Products/Odyssey_ERP) — incumbent in · Products